2023-4 The Netherlands

To be published in MSSR (Munich Social Science Review) Reviewing Dutch Democracy Peter Emerson Abstract: In the current review of the Dutch political system, there is one huge 'elephant in the room' which has so far not been questioned: the fact that in the Netherlands (and elsewhere), the chosen methodology of decision-making in Parliament is the simple binary vote. So while arguments about numerous electoral systems abound, discussions of the various methodologies which could be used to identify the democratic ‘majority’ opinion do not. This is despite the fact that the current methodology, majority voting, is primitive, often divisive, and sometimes hopelessly inaccurate. More inclusive methodologies are possible, the use of which could lead to a more wholesome polity. Furthermore, one of the more accurate – and therefore more democratic – decision-making methodologies is non-majoritarian; if the latter were to be adopted, the ubiquitous habit of dividing every newly elected parliament into two could be replaced by a more inclusive form of governance based on an all-party coalition. Hence, and at a stroke, many of the current problems associated with forming a new government could be overcome… and the benefits abroad could be overwhelming! Keywords: Preferential voting in decision-making, all-party power-sharing, modified Borda count, governments of national unity, matrix vote, conflict resolution. 1. Introduction In reviewing the Dutch system of governance, the first four papers in the Munich Social Science Review (MSSR), Volume 3 (2020) discussed the Dutch electoral system, even though, as Hannu Nurmi (2020) implies, 'if it ain’t wrong, don’t fix it.’ In contrast, this paper concentrates on two © 2023 Verlag Holler, München. ISSN 0170-2521 ISBN 978-3-88278-315-5 www.accedoverlag.de 38 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 aspects which do need fixing: the question of how best should decisions be taken, that is, how best can be identified the will of parliament; and the second, how best to implement government formation. A solution to the first could well facilitate a resolution of the second. Now democracy is based on the principle of majority rule. That is not in doubt. The question is: which voting procedure should be used to identify the democratic majority opinion? Apart from binary voting, there are a number of multi-option procedures: these include (a) plurality voting; (b) the two-round system TRS; (c) the alternative vote AV;1 (d) approval voting; (e) range voting; (f) the Borda count BC, (g) its original, the modified Borda count MBC; and (h) the Condorcet rule.2 While electoral systems vary enormously, decision-making does not, and the elected parliaments of most countries nearly always use binary voting. There are just a few exceptions. Denmark uses plurality voting, albeit on only three options. Norway tried TRS, but only once. Sweden has serial voting – a series of majority votes which can give the Condorcet winner – when discussing amendments. And still in Scandinavia, Finland has used TRS in a referendum. Interestingly enough, so too has the UK.3 Indeed, it is in referendums that some countries have allowed for a degree of pluralism seldom if ever seen in their parliaments;4in 1992, for example, New Zealand held a five-option TRS referendum on its electoral system. Of the voting procedures listed above, the MBC is non-majoritarian: it can identify the option with the highest average preference, and an average, of course, involves every member of parliament, not just a majority of them. If this were to be the basis of Dutch democracy, 1 Otherwise known as the single transferable vote STV; or, in the USA, as ranked choice voting RCV; or again, in Australasia, as preference voting PV. 2 Apart from binary (yes/no) voting, the only other decision-making voting procedure mentioned in the Munich Social Science Review (MSSR), Volume 3, was approval voting (in Brouwer and Staal 2020). 3In 1948, the British Government proposed a binary referendum for New foundland. The folks in Halifax were soon on the streets to demand a third option; it was duly added… and on an 88% turnout, it won the second round by 52%. 4 The Netherlands has not used the referendum tool very often. But uniquely, in 1991, the good people of Vlaardingen held a referendum on whether or not to have a referendum. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 39 governance could be based on an all-party,5 power-sharing government of national unity GNU. Accordingly, this paper will consider the weaknesses of binary voting before then describing the MBC, its procedures and its advantages. It next discusses an outline of the matrix vote, a tabular voting procedure by which members of a parliament can choose, in their order of preference, not only those whom they wish to be in cabinet, but also the particular ministerial post in which they wish each of their nominees to serve. The paper concludes with the potential benefits of consensus voting. 2 Binary Voting Countless incidents show that binary voting is inadequate. Sometimes, indeed, the outcome of such a decision-making procedure is determined by a totally unrelated incident. In 1900, in a debate on compulsory education, F.D. Graaf Schimmelpenninck fell off his horse and missed the vote, which thus was approved by 50:49. A more recent incident was in 1999 – De nacht van Wiegel – when the Government collapsed as a result of the said Mr. Wiegel, a member of the Eerste Kamer or Senate, voting against his own Party, Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie VVD. In both instances, the matter was resolved by a margin of just one vote. Nearly every democracy has witnessed similar events in which the course of history has been altered, completely, by the act of just one person – in some cases, an individual who was bribed, threatened or seduced.6 In a word, binary voting is fickle. Let us therefore consider voting theory, firstly to examine the workings of a binary procedure (and multi-option voting will be discussed later on). Consider the following hypothesis: a committee of three persons debating the topic of tax rates for the rich, currently assumed to be 40%. All three are agreed, that is far too low. Ms i suggests 70% and moves a motion to that effect; Mr j thinks 60% would be more appropriate and proposes an amendment; while opting for a more modest 50%, Ms k moves a second amendment. Let us also assume that, as shown in Table I, Ms i has a perfectly logical set of single-peaked preferences: 70-60-50-40; that Mr j's preferences are also single-peaked, 60-50-40-70; while for reasons of gender solidarity perhaps, Ms k's 3rd and 4th preferences are 5 The term ‘all-party’ implies all the main parties. Obviously, not all 19 parties can be represented in a Cabinet of 16! 6 For a fuller list, see http://www.deborda.org/won-by-one/ 40 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 inter-changed: 50-40-70-60. After all, as the old English saying goes, “there's nought as queer as folks.” Table I: The Committee's Preferences
Preferences |
Ms i |
Mr j |
Ms k |
1st |
70 |
60 |
50 |
2nd |
60 |
50 |
40 |
3rd |
50 |
40 |
70 |
4th |
40 |
70 |
60 |
According to laid down procedures,7the committee first debates and then chooses its more preferred amendment: 60 or 50; and by a majority of 2:1, they choose 60. Next, they decide either to adopt this amendment or to stick with the original motion, another dichotomy, now of 60 or 70, and both Ms i and Ms k prefer 70. Finally, it's yet another binary choice between this substantive as it is called, 70%, and the status quo, 40%, and again by a 2:1 majority, they prefer 40. That is it: by a 2/3rds majority, this committee decides that they want the very thing they had agreed they don't want. As the table shows, however, all three voters prefer 50% to 40%. So, the outcome is wrong. The conclusion is stark: binary voting is not only primitive and divisive, it is also, sometimes, inaccurate. Or, to quote Riker (1988: 65), “however democratic simple majority decision initially appears to be, it cannot in fact be so.” Furthermore, the very procedure is so manipulable. For the above voters with the above preferences, if the original motion had been for 60, with 50 and 70 as the two possible amendments, the outcome would have been 60%. Or again, if they had started with a different status quo, let’s say of 50%, and if the motion had moved 40 with 70 and 60 as the two amendments, the outcome would have been 50%. In effect, binary voting can sometimes be little more than a lottery, and this is especially true whenever there is a binary vote paradox, as there is in Table I. 70 is more popular than 60, which we write as 70 > 60, and in all: 70 > 60 > 50 > 40 > 70 > …. In such a scenario, no matter what the outcome, there is always a majority in favour of something else. In other words, binary voting can be 7 Many of these rules are well over 2,000 years old, established when the only known voting procedure was binary voting. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 41 a cause of conflict. It also means that those who decide on the order of voting have the power to manipulate the debate and, sometimes, to determine the outcome.8 3. The modified Borda count MBC Of the other methodologies mentioned, (a) a plurality vote might identify the option with only the largest minority; whereas (b) TRS definitely identifies a democratic majority opinion, (c) as does AV but, as I demonstrated in my contribution to MSSR Volume 3 (Emerson 2020), the AV majority opinion might not be the same as the TRS majority opinion. The next two methodologies are non-preferential: (d) approval voting is not best suited for the political forum, not least because it incentivises the participant to be, not consensual, but intransigent, while (e) range voting is even more prone to this weakness. The other methodologies mentioned above are (f) the BC, (g) MBC, and (h) the Condorcet rule. The last three take all preferences cast by all voters into account, always. The Condorcet/Copeland winner is the option which wins the most pairings. At best, the MBC winner is the option with the highest average preference.9 In other words, the MBC is non-majoritarian and thus worthy of further study. It works like this: In a parliament of say ten parties, there might be up to ten different ideas on any one problem (which, it is assumed, is non-urgent). Accordingly, one party may move a motion – option A; rather than just oppose, other parties, as if in a German constructive vote of confidence, may propose something different – options B, C etc. If the difference is just a small amendment to one minor 8 As was the case in Brexit. Boris Johnson ensured that ‘his deal’ was approved, only by pitting it against that which he knew was the most unpopular of all options – ‘no deal’. 9In many profiles, the Condorcet winner will be the same as the MBC social choice. 42 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 paragraph, or if it is a complete re-draft, either way, every party proposing an option must make it a complete package.10 Every option ‘on the table’ may be summarised on a computer screen and listed on a dedicated website, with highlights showing whatever differences there might be. In debate, options may be tweaked, amended, composited or even deleted, but only if the original movers agree to such changes. Accordingly, the number of options in question may vary. If in debate this number is reduced to a singleton, this final option may be regarded as the (verbal) consensus. If not, the Speaker/Voorzitter may draw up a (short) list, usually of four to six options. When all parties agree that their particular option (still ‘on the table’) has been considered – that it has been included verbatim or as amended or in composite – the members of the Tweede Kamer may cast their preferences. If the winning option's average preference score passes a pre-determined threshold, it may be seen as the best possible compromise; if higher still, it may be regarded as the consensus.11 If not, if nothing passes even the minimum threshold, then it must be assumed that there is no agreement and that the debate should be resumed, with a focus perhaps on those options which received the slightly higher scores. 2.1 The Mathematics of the MBC The MBC should not be (but often is) confused with the BC. As I mentioned in MSSR Volume 3 (Emerson 2020), the original formula of Jean-Charles de Borda (though not expressed in this way) stipulated that in any vote on n options, the voter may cast m preferences, such that n ≥ m ≥ 1 and that points shall be awarded to (1st, 2nd … last) preferences cast, according to the rule (m, m-1 … 1). rule i Accordingly, ▪ he who casts only one preference gets his favourite just 1 point, ▪ she who casts two preferences gets her favourite 2 points (and her 2nd preference 1 point), and so on; so ▪ those who cast all n preferences get n points for their favourite (n-1 for their 2nd choice, n-2 for their 3rd, etc.). 10 In consensus politics, there’s no such thing as ‘a wrecking amendment’. 11 In other words, a consensus can be achieved, either entirely verbally or in a debate which culminates in a preferential vote. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 43 Unfortunately, even in Jean-Charles’ lifetime, the above rule i was changed to (n, n-1 … 1) rule ii or (n-1, n-2 ...0) rule iii which, incentivises the voter to truncate his/her vote, as can happen in approval voting. The latter formulae, rules ii and iii, are unfortunately called a Borda count, BC… and poor old Jean-Charles is a’rolling in his grave. With the MBC, however, the MPs are encouraged by the very mathematics of the count to cast many if not a full list of n preferences. If, then, any Tweede Kamerlid finds the policies of the Partij voor de Vrijheid PVV proposal, for example, unpalatable, they can of course submit a list of just (n-1) preferences.12 In regard to the other options, however, they thus as it were acknowledge the validity of their parliamentary colleagues' aspirations. So, the MBC enables the parliamentarians to be much more inclusive than is possible in any majoritarian milieu. It should perhaps be noted that if the voters’ profile shown in Table I is analysed by MBC, the committee’s social choice supports the 50% option on a score of 9, and the social ranking is 50-60-70-40%, with scores of 9- 8-7-6; what’s more, this collective will is single-peaked. In other words, with an MBC, they confirm their dislike of 40% and agree to increase the tax rate to 50%. “It seems clear that Borda’s criterion is the soundest method of identifying the [option which] is most generally popular… or at least the most acceptable” (Dummett 1984: 71). 3. Power-sharing Now because the Netherlands has a pretty good PR electoral system, elections tend not to lead to any one party having a majority of the seats. But because the Parliament still uses a pretty bad decision-making system, the above majority vote, there is then the problem of how to form a government, which many people continue to think has to be based on a majority coalition. 12 And the same applies to any policies from the other extremist parties like the Forum voor Democratie FvD and Juiste Antwoord 21 JA21 44 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 The present situation is as follows: the Dutch (and many another) democratic process consists of an open and transparent election followed by a closed and opaque procedure of increasing duration13 as the various parties negotiate, albeit under the guidance of a formateur, and eventually succeed in concocting a majority coalition.14 Sometimes, its majority is small, implying that the government is unstable – indeed, in 2017, it had a majority of only one; and sometimes its make-up is not – how shall we say? – wholesome. In 2002, the Christen-Democratisch Appèl CDA (on 43 seats) and the VVD (24) (People's Party of Freedom and Democracy) joined up with the extremist Lijst Pim Fortuyn LPF (26), whose leader had been assassinated just days before the election; these were turbulent times, and the arrangement lasted for only five months. In 2010, VVD (31) could have joined forces with the next largest party, the Partij van de Arbeid Labour Party, PvdA (30); but no, and instead it coalesced with the CDA (21) and the PVV (24) in an arrangement, gedoogakkoord, in which admittedly the PVV did not hold any ministerial seats.15 If, however, the democratic norm of binary voting were to be replaced by the MBC, there would be little further justification for a majority government (and even less for a minority administration). Instead, there could be that which many countries advocate(d) for conflict zones like Bosnia and Afghanistan: all-party power-sharing. Now most of the jurisdictions which have managed to devise some form of inclusivity have used a formula – the Belfast Agreement relies on a d'Hondt form of 'cherry picking', the Taif Accord in Lebanon shares out the top positions according to the main confessional beliefs, and the 13 In 2010, the Dutch Parliament took 127 days to form a government; in 2015, only 52, but in 2017, it was 225 days... still well short of the 2010/11 and 2019/20 world records set by Belgium of 541 and 494 days. In all instances, forming a government involved a huge loss of time and political energy. More seriously, in 2010 and with lives at stake, Iraq took 249 days. 14 Italy and Greece also enjoy PR, but they avoid this problem of government formation by awarding the winning party a large number of bonus seats… which means, of course, that what had been a proportional electoral system can no longer be so described. 15 Other countries also enter into unwholesome coalitions. When Austria’s Freedom Party entered into government in 2001, the EU actually imposed sanctions… for six months only. Both of the two main parties in Britain have occasionally sought the support of the tiny and equally unwholesome Democratic Unionist Party DUP, (and the fact that both of the largest British parties had a vested interest in having a small rump of easily wooable MPs was one of many factors which for far too long hindered any lasting solution to the NI Troubles). Israel has also seen the unwholesome Jewish Home act as the tiny extremist tail which wags an otherwise not quite so unwholesome dog. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 45 Dayton Agreement for Bosnia stipulates a three-person presidency – but all three arrangements perpetuate the very sectarianism they were supposed to obviate. The magic Zauberformel used in Switzerland would do the same.16 No country has yet used the obvious tactic of an election. This is because most electoral systems enable members to choose only ‘who’ should be in cabinet, but not ‘what', in other words, ‘who’ should be the minister of ‘which’ portfolio. Hence the matrix vote17 (Emerson 2007: 61-85). Consider a very simple example of a parliament of ten MPs electing a government of six ministers, a Prime Minister and five others, Ministers A to E. Accordingly, every member of this parliament would receive a ballot paper, as shown in Table II. Table II: A Matrix Vote Ballot
Preferences |
The Cabinet |
||||||
PM |
Minister A |
Minister B |
Minister C |
Minister D |
Minister E |
||
1st |
|||||||
2nd |
|||||||
3rd |
|||||||
4th |
|||||||
5th |
|||||||
6th |
Every MP of every party could then participate in selecting the Government. If such were the case – (and this text now returns to the present tense) – each MP chooses, in order of preference, six other members of parliament, and inserts these names in the shaded part of the ballot. Then, in the unshaded matrix, each MP writes six P1s, (for reasons which will be explained later), to indicate who of these six they wish to 16 The Swiss all-party seven-person Federal Council, whose members represent the top four or five parties in Parliament, is based on the magic Zauberformel ratio of 2:2:2:1 or now 2:2:1:1:1. 17 The matrix vote was first put to the test in a cross-community conference in Belfast in 1986. Since then, it has been developed into its present format. A recent demonstration with electronic voting was held in 2016, under the auspices of The Irish Times in co-operation with the de Borda Institute and others. See http://www.deborda.org/home/2016/4/25/2016-5-ireland-let-the-dail-elect-a govt.html 46 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 serve in which ministry: one P1 in each column, and one P1 in each row. An example of a completed ballot is shown in Table III. Table III: A Completed Matrix Vote Ballot
Preferences |
The Cabinet |
||||||
PM |
Minister A |
Minister B |
Minister C |
Minister D |
Minister E |
||
1st |
Ms g |
P1 |
|||||
2nd |
Ms l |
P1 |
|||||
3rd |
Mr p |
P1 |
|||||
4th |
Mr d |
P1 |
|||||
5th |
Mr m |
P1 |
|||||
6th |
Ms t |
P1 |
The analysis is done in two stages, but first, a clarification: a number in the matrix is called a sum, while any addition of sums is called a score. The first stage of the count is a PR analysis of the data shown in the shaded column. This could be done under the rules of any proportional and preferential system, but the author's recommendation is for the quota Borda system QBS (Emerson 2007: 39-60) which, because of its MBC element, encourages every MP to submit a full ballot; and because the matrix vote is based on a QBS proportional ballot, it thus encourages them to cross the party divide.18 The second stage of the matrix vote analysis is an MBC of the data in the matrix. Every 1st preference (of a full ballot) gets 6 points, every 2nd gets 5, and so on. And the six most popular members of parliament are then appointed, in descending order of all the sums, to the ministry for which they get the most points. Let us consider the motivations of a party with, say 40% of the seats in this parliament, which can thus expect two or at most three of its members to be elected to cabinet. To maximise its potential, it will nominate two, at 18 As in PR-STV, so too in QBS, parties are encouraged (by the mathematics of the count) to nominate only as many candidates as they think they can get elected. In a 30:30:30 constituency in Bosnia, for example, no one party would want to nominate more than two candidates, and no one sectarian group would want to nominate more than three. If then the member of parliament were to submit a full ballot, he/she had best cross at least the party divide if not indeed the ethno religious chasm. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 47 most three candidates, each for a specific ministerial post. At the same time, it must be emphasised that, to get the most points for its own candidates, it is to every member’s advantage to submit a full and therefore cross-party ballot – an essential pre-requisite, it is argued, of any power-sharing polity. Needless to say, quite a few parties might wish to have one of their members become PM, and doubtless too there will be keen competition for some of the more leading portfolios, the Ministerie van Financiën for example. Hence the P1, because members may also cast a P2 and a P3 – the letter P stands for priority – so if their particular P1 candidate does not get appointed to be PM, the points that candidate received will be transferred to the column(s) of his/her P2s. In the unlikely event of a tie,19 the decision goes to the more popular MP (as measured in the QBS election); and if there's still a tie, it goes to the more contended ministry (the ministry which gets the higher MBC score, as measured in the bottom row of Table IV). Table IV: A Matrix Vote Count
Preferences |
The Cabinet |
MBC P1 scores |
||||||
PM |
Minister A |
Minister B |
Minister C |
Minister D |
Minister E |
|||
1st = |
Ms r |
20 |
20 |
10 |
50 |
|||
1st = |
Mr s |
10 |
20 |
10 |
10 |
50 |
||
1st = |
Ms h |
30 |
20 |
50 |
||||
4th = |
Mr u |
10 |
10 |
20 |
||||
4th = |
Mr m |
(10) |
20 |
(10) |
20 |
|||
6th = |
Ms l |
10 |
10 |
|||||
6th = |
Ms q |
10 |
10 |
|||||
MBC P1 scores |
60 |
20 |
60 |
20 |
20 |
30 |
210 |
Let it be assumed that a parliament of ten MPs is electing a cabinet of six ministers, and that all ten cast full ballots of six preferences. So, the total number of points cast is 10 x (6+5+4+3+2+1) = 210. Let it also be assumed that the count gives the results shown in Table IV: this suggests that the first five members in the shaded column have definitely been 19 With 150 Tweede Kamerleden casting 21 points each, the chances of any two sums being the same are minimal; the matrix vote, however, is robust. 48 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 elected to the Cabinet, while there’s a tie for the 6th member – Ms l and Ms q both on a score of 10 – while three members of the ten-member parliament got no P1s at all. As noted above, ministries are awarded in descending order. The top sum in the matrix is 30, (Ms h/PM), so sure enough, Ms h becomes PM. At which point, any P2s cast for Ms r and Mr s shall be transferred to their P2 columns but, for the sake of simplicity, it is here assumed there are none. The next highest sum is 20, of which there are five, two shown in reverse and three in tint: one is for Ms h to be Minister A, but she has already been appointed as PM, so the (Ms h/A) 20 may be ignored; in like manner, the (Ms r/PM) 20 may also now be ignored. The other 20s – (Ms r/C, Mr s/B and Mr m/B, all in tint in Table IV) – show no contention for Ms r as Minister of C; there is a tie, however, for the B Ministry; but Mr s is more popular than Mr m, so Mr s wins. Whereupon Mr m’s 20 P1s are transferred according to their P2s, let us say 10 to each of A and D – shown in Table IV in brackets. – The situation, so far, is shown in Table V. Table V: A Matrix Vote Count, in Progress
Preferences |
The Cabinet |
MBC P1 scores |
||||||
PM |
Minister A |
Minister B |
Minister C |
Minister D |
Minister E |
|||
1st = |
Ms r |
20 |
50 |
|||||
1st = |
Mr s |
20 |
50 |
|||||
1st = |
Ms h |
30 |
50 |
|||||
4th = |
Mr u |
10 |
20 |
|||||
4th = |
Mr m |
(10) |
(10) |
20 |
||||
6th = |
Ms l |
10 |
10 |
|||||
6th = |
Ms q |
10 |
10 |
|||||
MBC P1 scores |
60 |
20 |
60 |
20 |
20 |
30 |
210 |
There is now another tie, with four candidates – Messrs u, m, l and q – all competing for the last three appointments, the Ministries A, D and E, each on a person/post sum of 10 points. With scores of 20 (as shown in the right-hand column), Messrs u and m are the more popular candidates, so Mr u is appointed to the E ministry; and given that the A ministry is uncontested, whereas D has another aspirant, Mr m takes on the Ministry of A. This leaves Ms l and Ms q, both on a score of 10, but only Ms l has any points for D, so she fills the final post. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 49 All things being equal – that is, if the election takes place without threats or bribes and the like – the outcome is bound to be a Cabinet in which, individually, every minister is well suited to his/her appointed ministry, while collectively, the Cabinet then represents the various parties in parliament, each (approximately) in their proportional due. The result of the above hypothetical vote is shown in Table VI, and please note, the order of ministries has been re-arranged in order, left to right, of their P1 scores, a measure of the degree of contention of each ministry. Table VI: The Elected Cabinet
Preferences |
The Cabinet |
MBC P1 scores |
||||||
PM |
Minister B |
Minister E |
Minister C |
Minister D |
Minister A |
|||
1st = |
Ms h |
30 |
50 |
|||||
1st = |
Ms r |
20 |
50 |
|||||
1st = |
Mr s |
20 |
50 |
|||||
4th = |
Mr u |
10 |
20 |
|||||
4th = |
Mr m |
10 |
20 |
|||||
6th |
Ms l |
10 |
10 |
|||||
Others |
10 |
|||||||
MBC P1 scores |
60 |
60 |
30 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
210 |
To conclude, the Netherlands’ entire democratic electoral process would therefore consist of one open and transparent election, in which the people choose their parliamentarians; followed about a week later by another equally open and transparent election, in which the latter choose their government. 3.1Will it Work? It should first be recognised that binary majority rule does not work well, anywhere. In the USA, it often makes governance dysfunctional. While in conflict zones, not only in Northern Ireland but in the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Ukraine20 and not least in the Middle East, it is often (not the perhaps but) a cause of that conflict. 20 When Ukraine became independent in 1991, the EU (or EC) supported a polity based on majority rule. In 2014, however, when the protests in Maidan became horribly violent, the EU changed its mind in favour of power-sharing, and a delegation rushed over to Kiev… too late; it arrived on the very day Viktor 50 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 Table VII: Potential Governments of National Unity
Country |
Last election |
Party |
Number of seats in parliament |
Expected number of cabinet seats |
Problematic |
||||
Austria |
2019 |
FPÖ, Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs |
31/183 |
3/15 |
Germany |
2017 |
AfD, Alternative für Deutschland |
94/709 |
2/16 |
Ireland |
2020 |
SF, Sinn Féin |
37/159 |
3/15 |
Netherlands |
2017 |
PVV, Partij voor de Vrijheid |
20/150 |
2/16 |
UK |
2020 |
DUP, Democratic Unionist Party |
10/650 |
0/25 |
Purposeful |
||||
Israel |
2020 |
Arab List |
15/120 |
7/37 |
Turkey |
2018 |
HDP, Halkların Demokratik Partisi |
67/600 |
2/19 |
Problematic |
||||
Israel |
2022 |
Religious Zionist |
14/120 |
4/31 |
Shas |
11/120 |
3/31 |
||
United Torah |
7/120 |
2/31 |
||
Otzma Yehudit |
6/120 |
2/31 |
||
Noam |
1/120 |
-/31 |
That said, as shown in Table VII, GNUs could have quite a few consequences: in the first four countries, it could mean that extremist parties were ‘at the table’ but – as indicated in the final column – only in their proportional due. In the two ‘Purposeful’ rows, such a GNU could be the very basis of a long overdue more inclusive polity, a cause for hope for both countries’ Arab and Kurd minorities. In the Netherlands, (as too in Germany and Ireland), many persons in other political parties have often said that they would not, indeed could not, sit in cabinet with those of the PVV (as too AfD in Berlin or Sinn Féin in Dublin). In a consensual polity, however, there is little to fear: no faction (PVV) of only two persons can dominate a Cabinet of 16, especially if the latter is working in consensus. What’s more, most elected politicians want to be re-elected. To do that, they must be effective. And to do that in a consensual milieu, they must moderate their extremism. At the same time, if governance is to be subject to just a majority coalition, there is always the danger of an extremist administration in which the dog _______________________ Yanukovych ran into exile. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 51 is wagged by at least one of many tails … as is currently the case in Israel. I rest my case. Meanwhile, in other countries, such a robust and proportional methodology could well facilitate that which in many instances is an otherwise intractable problem, as was the case for example in Afghanistan, where the very western concept of political party is a little more – let us say – flexible. Generally speaking, however, when needs must, parties of supposedly diametrically opposite views have often shown themselves to be able to work together, sometimes in grand coalitions, or occasionally, as in war time, in all-party coalitions. The Covid and Climate Change crises are no less existential (Emerson 2022: 86f). Politics is indeed the art of the possible. Consensus voting – the MBC in decision-making, QBS in elections and the matrix vote in governance – is its science. 4. Conclusion It is quite extraordinary, but many countries have an electoral system which allows the voter to cast only one preference. It is as if he who supports the CDA, for example, regards all the other parties, from PvdA to PVV, with equal disdain. This is obviously not the case. In other words, if she is allowed to cast only one preference, the voter cannot express her opinion accurately. The overall election result, the collation of all this inaccurate information, will therefore be imprecise as well – (and this is especially true in a single-preference system like the UK’s first-past-the post). A preferential procedure like (PR-STV or) QBS could help to overcome this problem (rather more readily, it is suggested, than a Tsebelis-Crosson multi-vote procedure). What is even more extraordinary is the fact that so few question majority voting. As I wrote in MSSR (Emerson 2020), binary voting is Orwellian: ‘this’ good, ‘that’ bad. Yet it is ubiquitous. It is even enshrined in the North Korean Constitution. (Not that it is often used in Pyongyang.)21 One can understand why politicians like majority voting: it invariably allows them to write the question on the referendum or 21 Socialist Constitution of DPRK, Article 97, para 2: “…decisions of the Supreme People’s Assembly are adopted when more than half of the deputies attending signify approval by a show of hands.” In like manner, Para 3 stipulates a two thirds majority for any constitutional amendments. The North Korean parliament meets only once or twice a year! (Article 92). 52 Munich Social Science Review, New Series, vol. 6, 2023 parliamentary ballot, and that question is usually the answer. But why do members of the media and academia, along with the founding fathers of the US Constitution in 1776, as well as those involved in drafting the Grundgesetz in the 1949 Parliamentary Council in Bonn, and those in Dayton in 1995 writing the Bosnian Peace Accords, and those in Belfast drawing up the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, and those concerned with the 2001-3 Convention on the Future of Europe … why do most of these good people just ignore multi-option voting procedures? They sometimes tweak majority voting, and hence consociational voting (in Belgium, Bosnia, Cyprus and Northern Ireland), along with qualified majority voting (in the EU) and constructive votes of confidence (in Germany). But preferential voting? The ideas of Ramón Llull, Nicholas Cusanus, Jean-Charles de Borda, Rev. Charles Dodgson (Lewis Carroll) and so on, apparently, count for little. So, problems are still reduced to dichotomies, or series of dichotomies. So, politics continues to be adversarial. So, minorities still argue with majorities. Often they fight. And the world struggles on, from one blunder to the next. It is strongly suggested that the need for the Netherlands to adopt a more inclusive polity should be seen in this international context. References Brouwer, P., and K. Staal (2020), “The Future Viability of the Dutch Democracy; A Model Case,” in: M.J. Holler (ed.), Improving Democracy (I) and Robots, Munich Social Science Review, Volume 3: 7-53. Dummett, M. (1984), Principles of Electoral Reform, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Emerson, P. (2007), Designing an All-Inclusive Democracy, Heidelberg: Springer. Emerson, P. (2020), “Can Rights BeWrong? Towards a Less Majoritarian More Inclusive Democracy,” in: M.J. Holler (ed.), Improving Democracy (I) and Robots, Munich Social Science Review, Volume 3: 93-111. Emerson, P. (2022), The Punters’ Guide to Democracy, Cham: Springer Nature. Nurmi, H. (2020), “Remarks on ‘The Future Viability of Dutch Demo cracy’,” in: M.J. Holler (ed.), Improving Democracy (I) and Robots, Munich Social Science Review, Volume 3: 55-62. P. Emerson: Reviewing Dutch Democracy 53 Riker, W.H. (1988), Liberalism against Populism, Long Grove: Wave land Press.
